Vol. 7, Issue 6 (2019)
Forecasting area and production of major rainfed pulse crops in Madurai district
Author(s): K Arulpandiyan and K Prabakaran
Abstract: The study was carried out to forecast the major rainfed pulse crops like green gram and red gram cultivated area and production in Madurai district. The data collected for the period of 2003-04 to 2017-18 in Madurai district selected pulse crop were used. Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to analyze the data. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model were used to forecast green gram cultivated area and production and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model were used to forecast red gram cultivated area and production in Madurai district for next five years. The result also shows green gram cultivated area forecast for the year 2022 to be about 4357.15 thousand hectare with upper and lower limit 7018.80 and 1659.51 thousand hectares and red gram cultivated area forecast for the year 2022 to be about 1746.03 thousand hectare with upper and lower limit 2808.87 and 683.192 thousand hectares respectively. The model also shows green gram production forecast for the year 2022 to be about 4578.70 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limit 7560.39 and 1597.01 thousand tonnes and red gram production forecast for the year 2022 to be about 1385.10 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limit 2958.76 and 188.548 thousand tonnes respectively.
Pages: 1819-1825 | 218 Views 50 Downloads
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How to cite this article:
K Arulpandiyan, K Prabakaran. Forecasting area and production of major rainfed pulse crops in Madurai district. Int J Chem Stud 2019;7(6):1819-1825.
